Donald Trump’s Kashmir -Middelingverkod offer India in a tight place

For decades, if there is one thing that is a taboo in the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the mediation of third parties is, especially in the long-term dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir.

Those who are aware are not surprised that US President Donald Trump – known for his unorthodox diplomacy – has touched a raw nerve in Delhi.

On Saturday he went to social media to announce that India and Pakistan – after four tense days of cross -border collisions – had agreed to a “full and immediately ceases -fens”, mediated by the US.

Later, in another message, he said: “I will work with both of you to see if a solution can be arrived after a thousand years, about Kashmir.”

Kashmir’s dispute dates from 1947, when India became independent of British rule and was divided to create Pakistan. Both neighbors claim the Kashmir region completely, but only manage it in part.

Various rounds of bilateral conversations in the course of the decades have not yielded a resolution. India treats Kashmir as an integral part of its territory and excludes each negotiation, in particular through a third party.

The last flare-up started after India had performed air strikes about what the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan called in the aftermath of the attack on tourists in Indian-assessed Kashmir last month, killing 26 people, mainly tourists.

India blames Pakistan in involvement in the incident, an indictment that is refused by Islamabad.

Trump’s intervention came when fighting between the two nuclear arming rivals threatened to spirit in a complete conflict.

The two parties used fighter jets, rockets and drones and said they focused on each other’s military installations, mainly in the border areas.

While American mediators, in addition to diplomatic backchans, A larger fire preventedPresident Trump’s offer has put Delhi in one place.

“It would clearly not be welcome by the Indian side. It drives against our explained position for many years,” Shyam Saran, a former Indian Foreign Minister, tells the BBC.

Delhi’s position about Kashmir was hardened, especially after it had withdrawn the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, which activated widespread protests in Kashmir.

President Trump’s recent comments have irritated many Indians, who see this as an attempt to “internationalize” the Kashmir dispute.

The most important opposition consequence wanted a statement from the government and an all-party meeting about the “Stak-Het-Furen announcements of Washington DC first”.

“Have we opened the doors for mediation of third parties? The Indian National Congress would like to ask whether diplomatic channels between India and Pakistan are being reopened,” said the spokesperson for the Congrest Party Jairam Ramesh.

American State Secretary Marco Rubios rack The announcement of the cease -the Fire also said that the two countries have also agreed “to start conversations about a wide range of problems on a neutral site”. This surprised the Indians.

Delhi has refused to keep discussions with Islamabad and accuses his neighbor of supporting what cross -border terrorism calls.

Historically, India has opposed mediation of third parties, with a quotation of an agreement signed in 1972 after a war between the two countries a year earlier. According to the Simla agreement signed by the leaders of the country, they decided to arrange their differences with peaceful means by bilateral negotiations “.

Indian officials also claim that even when they reach a household name with a civilian government in Pakistan, the powerful army of the country launched operations that undermines deals. They point to the Kargil war in 1999, when another conflict between the two countries began after a group supported militants strategic areas occupied in Kashmir, managed by the Indian.

The conflict took place months after the then Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers corresponded to solve issues by bilateral negotiations and to reduce interfering with each other’s internal matters.

The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not formally respond to President Trump’s offer to mediate.

But Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaischar said: “India has consistently kept a strong and uncompromising attitude against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do that.”

It is seen as an indication that India may not quickly restart direct bilateral conversations.

The view from Pakistan is different.

“Pakistan has always wanted general mediation of third parties in the Kashmir problem in the absence of mutual trust between the two countries,” says Impiaz Gul, the executive director of Center for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, the BBC.

“Now a super power is willing to stick his neck out. Pakistan will see this as a moral victory,” says Gul.

Pakistani strategic experts such as Syed Muhammad Ali claim that this is the result of the consistent refusal of India to come into contact with Pakistan that the international community must intervene to prevent a future conflict.

“Kashmir is one of the most critical issues for the international community. The recent rapid escalation proves that the Sabre rattle can get out of hand,” says Ali.

The assertive diplomacy of India, especially since Modi took over in 2014, is seen as a sign of his trust as an increasing global economic power.

But it will have to do a tough balance to avert Trump’s progress.

In recent years, the US has praised India as a stronghold against an increasingly assertive China. India is an important member of the quadrangular security dialogue group (Quad), together with the US, Australia and Japan, which was formed to combat Chinese expansionism in Indo-Pacific.

In recent decades, Washington has also sold modern transport aircraft, helicopters and other military equipment to Delhi, who would like to modernize his 1.4 million strong army, which is highly dependent on Russian weapons.

The previous American administrations were aware of the sensitivities of India compared to the Kashmir problem and remained largely away from interfering with it. But with Trump there is a question mark about whether that position is still in force.

The US is the largest trading partner of India with a bilateral trade of around $ 130 billion (£ 98 billion) in 2024. The government of Modi is currently negotiating a trade agreement with Washington to prevent rates.

Delhi will have to run a fine line. It will be averse to accepting the supply of Trump to mediate, or see the American mediated stakes, or “understanding” as it calls it, goes beyond the current military tensions. But it also wants to have a favorable trade relationship with the US.

Any attempt to broaden the conversations – about controversial bilateral issues such as the now suspended distribution of the river Water exchange or the status of Kashmir – will invite strong criticism to domestic level, a fall that is well aware of modes.