Fantasy baseball: Unexpected statistical trends to exploit going forward

One of the best things about maintaining our diaily Forecaster projections – My Favorite Fantasy Baseball Task- is discovering the many statistic quirks and anomalies that surface regularly.

In Examining some 2025 Season’s Early Trends, which is Especially perinent now that one-quarter of the season is in the books, I talk a look at what the forecaster Projections Model Highlighs Some of the matches of what we should take care when making our lineup decisions. After all, in Espn Standard Leagues, optimizing your diary lineup is the name of the game.

A’s and rays and the time of day

Sutter Health Park and George M. Steinbrenner field, the temperary homes of Athletics And the Tampa bay rayshave been every hitter-friendly ballparks we exposed. That Said, the results at Both Ballparks – and, specifically, when They have been hitting-frontly-reveal anomalous trends.

Thus far, the rays’ minor league -tuned-major league park has the game’s second-highest park factor rating for home runs at 1.33, meaning that it inflates home runs 33% relative to an averge environment. Meanwhile, the athletics’ Temperary Digs Rank Third (1.23), with Both Parks Trailing Only Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park (1.36) in that depart. Sutter Health Park, Meaning WHILE, Is Second in Runs Scored Factor (1.26) and Steinbrenner field is Third (1.11).

Oddly, Breaking Those Numbers Down By Time of Day Reveals That Sutter Health Park has been an Extreme Offensive Environment (1.34 Home Run and 1.39 Runs Scored Factors, Both of WHICH WOURD RANK FIRST) night Games, but has played much more neutral during the day. Steinbrenner field, on the other hand, has been an above -verage offensive environment during the day, but has been a day pitcher-Friendly Venue at Night (0.95 Home Run, 0.87 runs scored factors).

Remember that all this comes with precarious Small Sample sizes – 28 rays home games and 12 on the road, 21 athletics home games and 20 on the road, which pales in comparison to the minimum. Games I Prefer for Evaluating Park Factors. Plus, the rates should should shift as the season programs. The day/night splits we’ve seen so far are most like noise, but they ‘at the world key on the coming weeks.

Wind has been a contributing factor at steinbrenner field in its early weeks, but as my collegue todd zola pointed out During the presence, it becomes much less so as tampa bay programs in the summer months. Considering Steinbrenner Field’s Comparable Outfield Dimensions and Midseason Wind Trends to New York’s Yankee Stadium, It SEems Likely to Remain One of the Better Home Run Parks, But Nutral For Almost Everything Else.

Rays Pitchersear Rank Sixth in Baseball in Home Runs Allowed, And Four of their Five Regular Starters har/9 ratos of 1.35 or greater. Ryan pepiottheir second most fly-oriented starter (Behind Zack littell), Will need to recapture some of the 2024 Strikeouts He has the last in order to remain a mixed left-worthy starter. Visiting Fly Ball Pitchers to Steinbrenner field should continue to have expectitions tempered.

Sutter Health Park’s Question Pertains to Its Midsummer Temperatteres, which can reac the 90s during the day from June through August. That Alone Should Narrow the Venue’s Day/Night Park Factor Splits, but it’s also worth pointing out that the athletics plan 41 Home Games Across the Months WHITHS WHITE SEEVEN OF WEM SCHEDULD DURING THE DAY. Keep Careful Tabs on which Athletics Pitchers are Working Those Sunday Games in Extreme Heat, as they should be avided while Possible.

The seven visiting tims set to play the sewen day summertime sacramento games are the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Toronto blue jays, Arizona diamondbacks, LOS ANGELES ANGELS And Texas rangers. Keep these dates in mind if you are unluckyorn to have a Pablo Lopez, Kevin Gamman or Yusei Kikuchi Scheduled to work in one of those contests.

The best and the Worst of Streaming Matchups

The Cincinnati redsDespite their top-10 standing in runs per game, represent a surprisingly favorable matchup for opposing starting pitchers. This isn is a universal truth, as the reds do benefit from the extreme hitting-friendly environment in home games, but they are not a lineup to be universally faired.

For instance, the forecaster projections grade the reds as the Fifth World-Hiting Team Against Right-handed Pitchers, Giving them an Extreme Platoon Split that fantasy managers can express. Four of the Past Seven Right-handed Starting Pitchers who faced the reds has scored 20-Plus fantasy point-the most against one team during that time span. That’s Good News for notable right-handed starts eithly school (or potentially aligned) to face the reds in the coming day, Like Tanner bibee of the Guardians, Seth lugo of the Kansas city rooyals And Freddy peralta of the Milwaukee brewers.

Here are the 15 most favorable special matches for opposing pitchers, according to the forecaster Projections:

1. Colorado rockies on the road
2. Chicago white sox At Rate Field
3. White sox on the road
4. Angels on the Road
5. Rays on the Road
6. Pittsburgh pirates at pnc park
7. Washington Nationals on the road
8. Reds on the Road
9. Pirates on the Road
10. ANGELS AT ANGEL STADIUM
11. MIAMI MARLINS at Marlins Park
12. San Francisco giants at oracle park
13. Rockies at coors field
14. Nationals at Nationals Park
15. Seattle Mariners at t-mobile park

Conversely, these are the 15 worst special matches for opposing pitchers, making them the only one to the most Avoid:

1. Los angeles dodgers on the road
2. Dodgers at Dodger Stadium
3. Diamondbacks at chase field
4. Diamondbacks on the Road
5. San Diego Padres on the road
6. New york mets on the road
7. St. Louis cardinals on the road
8. New York Yankees on the road
9. Atlanta braves At Truist Park
10. Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Center
11. Chicago cubs on the road
12. Yankees at yankee stadium
13. Philadelphia phillies At Citizens Bank Park
14. Boston Red Sox At Fenway Park
15. Blue Jays on the Road

Beware the Better Bullpens

Despite the injury issues in their rotation, one of the reasons that the HOUSTON Astros Repention one of the tougher matches for opposing hits is the strength, and depth, of their bullpen. Considering that more than 40% of all innings pitched these days have been amassed by relievers (and the league-wide rate has been at last that larger in every search sence 2018), it is immportant for firefighter managers to Consider the strenge of the bullpens bathed their starters when making lineup decisions.

The astros have among the league’s widest splits between rotational and bullpen eras, ranking just 18th in the former (4.03) but third-best in the latter (2.80). The forecaster grades the astros burn as the second-best in MLB, which is where you ‘ Lance mccullers jr., Ryan likes And Colton Gordon Are scheduled to pitch.

Here are the league’s carrent finished best bullpens, according to the forecaster Projections Model:

1. TWINS
2. Astros
3. Braves
4. Detroit tigers
5. Mets

These are the five worst bullpens:

1. ANGELS
2. Nationals
3. Athetics
4. Rockies
5. White Sox

The Phillies Play an ENTERE WEEK OF GAMES AGAINST The Rockies and Athletics Being on Monday, all in hitting-friendly home environments. Keep that tucked away if you get Phillies hitters, as in addition to the park factors, they ‘ A player like JT RealmutoAvailable in More Than Half of Espn Leagues, Is Well World Picking up in Advance of Next Week to Capitalize Upon the Favorable Matchups.