How Canada’s Mark Carney plans to win Donald Trump

At Mark Carney’s last day of a debilitating race to be chosen, I was with him with huge and sparsely populated Canada.

It was his last push, not just to win, but also to get the majority, he said he had to stand up against the chaotic territorial and trading ambitions of his “neighbor in the south”.

For someone who had seen Carney as a cerebral technocrat, a crisis managing central bank governor ten years ago, the transformation in public orator was quite something.

I remember endless interviews that the then governor tried to say something new, or something that would make a good head.

Although this was a very different Mark Carney, the origin in crisis economy was also part of his sale.

Carney told his audience in Edmonton, Alberta, with the local oilers -hockey shirt: “President Trump has torn the world economy … The leadership of America of the world economy is over. It is still in the game, but it is a tragedy and our new reality … in hockey,” will “.

His supporters shouted “elbows up” and put them up, a reference to a stand -up and fights the attitude in the sometimes rough game of ice hockey.

“What we see throughout the country are Canadians who act on behalf of other Canadians, stand up for each other, buy from each other, travel here …”

During his very last stop in the distant west, in the insulation of Victoria, Vancouver Island, with only half an hour of campaign allowed, Carney went “unplugged” among supporters.

“As the collected media will tell you, I campaigned in prose,” Carney joked. “So I’m going to rule in econometrics,” he said about the Nerdy mathematician tribe of economics.

In normal circumstances, part of this can be interesting for the wider world. In the current circumstances, the origin of his election profit, his approach to policy -making and the nature of his mandate, could be crucial.

When I caught up with him for the exclusive BBC interview, just when the polls closed on Monday, he seemed confident, but did not consider anything for granted.

Mr Carney’s central argument remained consistent. He said he was the leader to accept the ‘betrayal’ of Donald Trump and threats for the Canadian economy and sovereignty.

It was illustrated by its last major rally on the border between the US and Canada, with the Ambassador Bridge and a skyline of iconic authority companies from Detroit behind him.

This bridge is the most important artery of trade in the Canadian US. A lot of effort went into this background of the two -way trade of the most integrated economies in the world, now tested for unimaginable levels. A non -subtle message from the Liberal Party Leader, about a changed continent.

The election result was amazing.

The liberal party arrived in 2025 and was as low as 16%, versus 45% for the conservatives of the opposition, in opinion polls.

The conservatives of Pierre Poilievre were not only on the way to victory, but for a total landslide.

But then after the imposition of President Trump of national security rates on Canada, with the help of the pretext of an alleged role in fentanyyl traffic, and then his und diplatic suggestion that Canada should join the US, the polls were tightened.

After Mark Carney was elected liberal leader, only eight weeks ago, the liberals reached a consistent poll lead, which she drove to victory last week.

The elections became an opinion about presidential style about who Trump could deal with.

Poilievre was fundamentally weakened by earlier overtures for the US president and his government style.

Carney recorded voters on the left who were afraid of a conservative government that was strengthened by Trump.

And incredible, in Quebec, the liberals have found support from separatists, who were more concerned about the independence of Canada of the US than their own constitutional status in Canada. There is nothing more to do than a credible external threat.

Carney gave some indications of his strategy during his interview with me. He spoke about a ‘win’ partnership with the US and the president reminded that Canada was the ‘greatest customer’ of 40 out of 50 American states, and an important supplier of energy and fertilizer.

He also told me that he “could possibly deliver them from critical minerals”. This struck me as a negotiating tactics, very focused on what Trump has been fixed elsewhere.

Canada has sufficient resources of critical minerals and would be a much more reliable supplier in the West than many other countries. However, Carney implicitly suggests that his country has deep strategic choices to deal with Europe here instead of the US.

In any case, the PM will use the impulse of external threat to try to transform the Canadian economy. Even when awarding an interview to BBC News, it was clear that he sees a crucial need to diversify trade and strategic alliances. Defense partnerships are now on the cards.

He seemed to acknowledge that a blocked trade agreement in Canadak could be accelerated.

On Friday he took the historical announcement that King Charles would personally reopen the Canadian parliament at the end of the month. This has not happened since 1977. It is entirely in accordance with the Constitution of Canada, but it is also a stunning statement of permanent independence of the White House.

All roads now lead to the G7 -top organized by Carney in the mid -June in Alberta, which means that the seven largest economies in the world come together, which dominate the global trade and the international financial system.

Assuming Trump will take place within a few days of the break in mass so -called “mutual rates” at most of the world.

It is often forgotten that if Canada and Mexico free themselves from the fentanyyl rates, they will be subjected to this system according to advisors from the White House, with a rates of at least 10%.

All this happens within a few days of some growing frustration of the traditional allies of America with the entire “trading deal” process.

Japan is becoming more and more frustrated, with his finance minister now openly to the undefeated company of Japan of the US government debt as a “card” in negotiations.

The EU did not get far. Even the VK has hinted that a deal with Europe can be a more effective way to stimulate the economy.

It is because rates start to have a visible and tangible negative impact on American companies and consumers.

There is no big stimulus to offer a lot, while the US itself starts to feel the inevitable inflatio consequences of its actions.

The fleet of empty Chinese cargo ships and empty docks on the American west coast will soon be seen in the economic data of an already shrinking American economy.

As a veteran of economic crises arising from the uncertain experiments of governments, Carney can be placed unique about how these situations come true. Many in the markets are not thoroughly impressed by the advisers of the White House who are reassured in recent weeks to reassure investors.

But Carney also has its own challenges. He has just missed a majority in parliament, but has chosen to project this as a virtue.

He will reach over the aisle for a “Canada team” approach to talk to the US.

The prime minister of the oil-rich Alberta State, who is a regular visitor to Mar-A-Lago, immediately announced movements to make separation referenda easier.

This is a very complicated, domestic, continental and global environment economic and politics. Few would predict exactly where it is going. Carney may have a major role in it, and not just for his own country.