Phlippines election result: the votes are in

As the sound and color of a two -month election campaign decrease, a Game of Thrones is resumed between the two most powerful families in the Philippines.

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos JR, and his vice-president, Sara Duterte, are involved in a bitter feud and a struggle for power.

As allies, they achieved a landslide victory in the last presidential election in 2022.

But as their relationship was broken – he accused her of threat to kill him, she accused him of incompetence and said they dreamed of beheading him – this interim election has become a critical barometer of the power of these two political dynasties.

And The results Were not great news for the Marcos camp. Usually established presidents in the Philippines receive most of their choices for the Senate that was chosen during the interim elections. The power of presidential patronage is a considerable advantage, at least in the past.

But not this time.

Only six of the twelve -winning senators are from the Marcos Alliance, and from Die, Camille Villar, is only half in his camp, because she also accepted Sara Duterte approval.

Four of the senators are in the Duterte camp, including the sister of President Imee Marcos. Two were in the top three voice winners, for each Marcos candidate.

This is a bad result for a sitting president.

Senators are chosen for a simple, national voice, which is a good indication of the national opinion. The result could weaken the authority of the Marcos government in the last three years of his term of office, and it makes doubts about the plan to eliminate Sara Duterte by accusing it.

The relationship between Marcos-Dutere has deteriorated almost since the start of their administration three years ago. But it was only this year that it tore completely.

The decision of the allies of the president in the congress to accuse the vice-president was the first irreparable infringement.

Then in March President Marcos sent the father of Sara, former President Rodrigo Duterte, to The International Criminal Court to take accusations of crimes against humanity About his brutal war against drugs. The police have now also submitted criminal prosecution against her.

The gloves were switched off. Accusation would lead to Sara Duterte being excluded from the public office and ends its ambition to replace President Marcos in the next elections.

At the moment she is the leader, and few doubts that, if successfully, she would use the power of the presidency to take revenge against the Marcos’s.

But accusation requires two -thirds of the Senate with 24 seats to vote for it, and that is why this interim election did so much of both camps.

Politics in the Philippines is a family business. As soon as a family reaches political power, it holds it and passes it around the different generations.

Although there are around 200 influential families, the Dutertes and Marcoses are at the top of the pyramid.

The Marcoses have been in politics for 80 years. The father of the current president ruled from 1965 to 1986, imposed a state of siege and plundered billions of dollars from the national wallet.

The mother of Bongbong Marcos, Imelda, who cast her vote at the age of 95 in this election of a wheelchair, is one Even more notorious figureAnd not just for her shoe collection.

His sister Imee has been re-elected to the Senate, thanks to her decision to transfer to the Duterte camp.

His eldest son Sandro is a congress member, and his cousin Martin Romualdez is a speaker of the Lower House and a likely presidential candidate in 2028 – probably the reason why Bongbong Marcos so much wanted to ride through the accusation of Sara Duterte.

In the home province of the President of Ilocos Norte, the cousin of his wife was elected to governor, his cousin chosen vice-governor and two other cousins ​​chosen as municipal councilors. Marcoses always wins above that.

The same applies to the Dutertes in their stronghold in Davao on the other side of the country.

Even from his prison trick in The Hague, former President Duterte ran for mayor of Davao, and won easily, although all voters were shown from him a life -size cardboard recess.

However, his absence will not matter, because the previous mayor was his son Sebastian, who is now taking over the task of the Vice-Burger. Dutertes are mayors of Davao for 34 of the last 37 years.

The problem with which both camps are confronted is that the senators usually also come from large political families, or are in themselves celebrities – many candidates come from a media or showbiz background.

They have interests and ambitions themselves. Even if they are officially connected to one or the other camp, there is no guarantee that they will remain loyal, especially about the issue of accusation.

“Senators in the Philippines are very sensitive to national public opinion because they imagine that vice presidents or presidents are awaiting,” says Cleve Arguelles, a political scientist who runs WR Numero Research, who monitors public opinion.

“So they always try to read the public spirit and read public opinion because of their future political ambitions.”

In recent months, public sentiment has not been on the president’s side.

Bongbong Marcos has never been a good speaker in public and his theater performances in the campaign did little to lift his flagging popularity.

His management of the economy, which is struggling, receives low figures in opinion polls, and his decision to hold former President Duterte and send him to the International Criminal Court, is depicted by the Duterte family as a national betrayal.

During a spontaneous rally in Tondo, a neighborhood with a low income in the port area of ​​Manila, Sara Duterte played an emotionally charged video of the moment her father was put into custody at the Internal Airport of Manila and had put a private jet to the hedge. She portrayed this as unforgivable treatment of a still popular former president.

“They not only kidnapped my father, they stole him from us,” she told the cheering crowd.

Also on stage, President Marcos’s older sister Imee, who did not agree with the extradition and ship to the Duterte camp jumping – although most observers consider this a cynical step to take advantage of the popular support of Duterte, so that she could pick up her own flag campaign to retain its senate chair.

It worked. Van Pollling Low Thor of the Campaign, Imee Marcos succeeded in scraping in the “Magic twelve”, calling the winning senators.

What is happening now is difficult to predict, but the Marcos camp is certainly confronted with a tough fight to drop Sara Duterte.

Of the 24 senators, only a handful of automatically loyal to the president. The rest will have to be persuaded to go with it, and that will not be easy.

This election has shown that the Dutertes still have very strong public support in some areas, and some in the Marcos Election Alliance have already been recorded that they are against taking the vice-president. The same applies to the 12 senators who were not maintained for elections this year.

A bright spot for the president could be the surprising election of senators Bam Aquino and Francis Pangilinan, both from the liberal wing of politics.

Few poll had predicted their victories that suggest that a public desire for politicians outside the feud of Marcos-Duterte.

Nor is a friend of the Marcos-Clan liberals the most important opposition against the Marcos-Duter Team in the 2022 elections.

But they were strong against the strong man of the former President Duterte, and can fear that his combative daughter became president in 2028. That may be enough to make them vote for accusation.

The trial period is expected to start in July. The Dutertes can be expected to continue to crumble in the public authority of the president, and both camps will lobby fondly behind the scenes to get senators on their side.

No president or vice-president has ever been successfully deposited in the Philippines. Neither has a president and vice president ever fallen so badly.

It will be a turbulent year.