Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, leads after the first round

Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won a scary victory in Poland’s presidential election, according to an exit survey, but a second round run-off with conservative historian Karol Nawrocki will be obliged to decide the next president of the country.

According to the poll that was released when the voting ended, Trzaskowski, a deputy leader of the Central Civic Platform (PO) Party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, won 30.8% of the votes.

Nawrocki finished second with 29.1% of the votes.

If the survey is confirmed by the final official result pass on Monday, trzaskowski and Nawrocki compete in a second round on 1 June, because none of the 13 candidates won more than 50% of the votes.

Trzaskowski told his supporters during a meeting in Sandomierz, Zuid -Polen: “We’re going to win.” But he said that a lot of work and “great determination” would be needed.

“I am convinced that all Poles will win,” he said.

He promised to work with Prime Minister’s coalition to liberalize the strict abortion law of the country and to accelerate the reform of the Polish judiciary, which was generally seen as politized by the previous government -led government.

Trzaskowski performed worse than predicted opinion polls before the vote, which had him between 4% -6% for Nawrocki.

The President of Poland has largely ceremonial powers, but he or she is able to express the government legislation. Tusk’s coalition does not have sufficient parliamentary majority to perform a presidential veto.

Tusk did not succeed in delivering many of his campaign blows, partly because the current conservative president Andrzej Duda has implemented the legislation of his government, but also because of divisions within the coalition about issues such as abortion and civil partnerships.

A victory for Trzaskowski would remove the veto from the president, but Nawrocki would probably be an even heavier obstacle than Duda.

Nawrocki told his supporters in Gdansk that Tusk should be stopped winning the total power in Poland.

He called supporters of two extreme right -wing candidates, Slawomir Mentzen, who became third and won 15.4%, and from Grzegorz Braun, who became fourth and won 6.2%to achieve “Poles” from Tusk.

Much will depend on which candidate can mobilize their electorate in the second round.

Nawrocki was unknown on a national scale before Law and Justice (PIS) chose him as a candidate. But he has improved at work, and Pis is traditionally good at obtaining their voice.

Trzaskowski will have to win the voices of supporters of his central party, but also those in support of the candidates of the Junior Coalition Partners, The Left (Magdalena Biejat) and Conservative Third Way (Szymon Holownia).

Another care for Trzaskowski is the better than expected result of extreme right -wing candidates because many of their supporters will not vote for him.

The result of Mentzen was a strong show and continued the improvement of his extreme right -wing confederation party since the parliament arrived in 2019.

Who will be, mainly young voters, back in the run-off?

Many would support Nawrocki for his Catholic, family -oriented views, but they do not like the left -wing economic policy of PIS of generous state benefits.

Mentzen is an anti-establishment candidate, and some of his supporters may not want to vote for Nawrocki or Trzaskowski, who represent the two parties that have dominated Polish politics for two decades.

Extreme right-wing Mep, the result of Grzegorz Braun was an annoying surprise for the liberal voters of Poland.

Braun made the headlines in 2023 when he pulled the candles on a Jewish Menora in the Polish parliament with a fire extinguisher after a ceremony for the Hanukkah festival.

Braun called the festival “Satanic”. During a presidential debate last month, he said: “Jews have way too much to say in Polish affairs.”