The new president of South Korea has a Trump-shaped crisis to avert

The new president of South Korea, Lee Jae-Myung, has obtained a storming victory, but his honeymoon will hardly last the day.

The former opposition leader cannot enjoy the transition period of two months that is usually offered to new leaders, so that they can build their team and record their vision on the land.

Instead, he immediately goes to the office to fill the gap that has been left behind by the accusation of the former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, who tried to bring the country under the state of siege last December.

When choosing Lee, with nearly 50% of the votes, South Koreans have fiercely rejected the military dictatorship that was almost forced. Lee campaigned on the promise that he would strengthen the democracy of South Korea and unite the country, after a division and tumultuous six months.

But that will have to wait. First he has a Donald Trump -shaped crisis to avert.

In the coming months, Trump has the power to destabilize the economy of South Korea, his safety and his volatile relationship with Noord -Korea.

South Koreans were relieved when Trump hit 25% rates at all Korean imports in April, after they had already hit the country with aggressive rates in the core industry – steel and cars. They had assumed that long -term military allies from the days of the Korean war, and having a free trade agreement with the US, would save them.

If these rates come into force “they can cause an economic crisis,” said a seasoned adviser to Lee’s Democratic Party, Moon Chung-in.

Before Trump’s announcements, the economy of South Korea already delayed. The state of the State of Siege narrowed it further. Then, in the first quarter of this year, it signed a contract. This repair was the most important requirement of voters, even above determining their besieged democracy.

But without president, conversations with Trump are put on hold. They can no longer be postponed.

And there is much more than the economy of South Korea at stake in these negotiations.

The US is currently guarantees that the safety of South Korea, by promising to defend both conventional and nuclear weapons, had to be attacked by its nuclear arming neighbor, North Korea. As part of this deal, 28,500 American troops are stationed in the country.

Nevertheless, Trump has made it clear that he does not intend to make a distinction between trade and safety when negotiating with South Korea, indicating that Seoul does not pull the weight in both lines.

In a post on his social social platform in April, Trump said that during the first tariff discussions with South Korea “he had discussed payment for the great military protection that we offer” and “called the” beautiful and efficient one-stop shopping “.

This approach makes Seoul uniquely vulnerable.

Evans Revere, a former senior American diplomat based in Seoul, fears that there will be a crisis. “For the first time in our lives we have an American president who feels no moral and strategic obligation against Korea.”

In his first term as president, Trump asked the value of having American troops in Korea and threatened to withdraw them unless Seoul paid more to have them. It seems likely that he will demand more money this time.

Seoul may not want to pay anymore, but it can afford it. A bigger problem is that the calculations of Trump and those of his Ministry of Defense seem to have changed. This is no longer just about the money. The top priority of Washington, who is now stopping in Noord -Korea in Asia, is not only the south to attack the south, it is also to contain the military ambitions of China in the region and against Taiwan.

Last year, an now senior American defense officer, Elbridge Colby, said that South Korea should “take overwhelming responsibility for his own self-defense against North Korea”, so the US could be ready to fight China.

An option is that the troops stationed here would shift their focus to limiting China. Another, Recommended by a few American defense officials last monthIs that thousands of soldiers would be removed completely from the peninsula and were used again, and that the Seoul’s army should also play a role in scare Beijing.

This could not only bring South Korea into a dangerous military perilous situation, but it would also make it a diplomatic difficulty.

President Lee, who has traditionally been skeptical about the alliance of Korea with the US, wants to use his presidency to improve relations with China, the powerful neighbor and trading partner of South Korea. He has stated several times that South Korea should stay out of a conflict between China and Taiwan.

“We have to keep an unforeseen event in China-Taiwan. We can get along with both,” he said during a television debate last month.

The political adviser Mr Moon, who once served as a national security adviser, repeated Lee’s concerns. “We are worried about America who abandons us, but at the same time we are worried about trapped in the American strategy to contain and surround China,” he said. “If the US threatens us, we can let (the forces) go,” he said.

For Mr Revere, the former American diplomat, this combination of Lee, Trump and China, threatens to create “the perfect storm”. “The two leaders can be on very different pages and that can be a recipe for a problematic relationship. If this takes place, it would undermine peace and stability in Northeast Asia”.

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un will undoubtedly keep a close eye on and exploit the shifting land. His nuclear weapon program is more dangerous than ever, and nothing or nobody was able to convince him to settle it – including Donald Trump who was the first US president to ever meet a North Korean leader during his first term.

Since the return to Office, Trump has indicated that he wants to resume conversations with Kim, which ended without agreement in 2019. In Seoul there is really concern that this time the couple could close a deal that is very bad for South Korea.

The fear is that Trump would take an “America First” approach and ask Kim to stop producing his intercontinental ballistic rockets that threaten the American mainland, without tackling the multiple nuclear weapons at a short distance that are aimed at Seoul. And in exchange, Kim could demand a high price.

Kim has much more influence than he has in 2019. He has more nuclear core heads, his weapons are more advanced and the sanctions that were supposed to exert pressure on his regime are almost collapsed, largely thanks to Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader offers Kim Economic and Military Support in exchange for the help of Noord -Korea in combating the war in Ukraine.

This therefore gives Kim the coverage to make daring requests from the US. He could ask Trump to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapon state, and agree to a deal that would reduce the weapons of Pyongyang instead of completely lost them. Another of his requests could probably be that the US some remove the security it offers South Korea, including the troops.

“Noord -Korea is now in the driver’s seat. The only Curveball is how much risk of President Trump will take,” said Sydney Seiler, who was involved in 2019 negotiations on the American side. “The idea that there might have been a kind of troop weather (included in a deal) is really not so far -fetched”.

Mr. Seiler emphasized that the US would not leave South Korea in the dust, “but advised the new President of South Korea to” establish a relationship with Trump at an early stage “, and to be clear that they expect to be part of any process, if conversations occur.

The new president must quickly move on all fronts, added Mr. Revere, with the argument that Lee’s first homework assignment should be to think of a list of 10 reasons why South Korea is an indispensable partner and why American dollars are well spent; Reasons that can convince a skeptical and transactional Trump.

A Baitkaart Zuid -Korea hopes to play is the Schipbuilding, bravery. It builds more ships than any other Landbar China, which is now the world’s dominant shipbuilder and the home of the largest navy fleet. This is a frightening prospect for the US whose own industry and navy are deteriorating.

Last month I visited the flagship of Zuid -Korea in Ulsan on the south coast -the largest in the world -where Hyundai Heavy Industries builds 40-50 new ships a year, including naval torpedo hunters. Sturdy taps with metal sheets and created barrels the size of small villages.

Seoul hopes that it can use this expertise to build, repair and retain warships for the US, and in the trial Washington convince a valuable partner.

“American shipbuilding problems influence their national security,” said Jeong Woo Maan, head strategy for Hyundai naval and shipping unit. “This is one of the strongest cards with which we have to negotiate”.

In his campaign for President, Lee Jae-Myung stated that he did not want to rush to similarity with Trump. Now in office, he could quickly find himself without this luxury.