UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Burns vs. Morales

Former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert burns Makes his first Octagon Appearance of 2025 When he squares off with undefeated Michael Morales In the min evening at the next night on Saturday (ESPN+, 7 PM ET MAIN CARD, 4 PM Prelims).

Burns, Espn’s No. 8-ranked welterweightenters the fight for his first victory Since April 2023, when he is also Jorge masdal By Unanimous Decision at UFC 287. Sean Brady Last September.

Morales, unranked by Espn, has won six straight figs in the UFC. Most recently, He Beat Neil magny By first-round knockout last august.

Brett okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA Coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC main event. Espn Betting Expert I Parker Adds Insight and Analysis on the Main Ever and Other Intriguing Bets He Likes on the Card.

Editor’s Note: Responses have been Edited for Brevity and Clarity.

Welterweight: Gilbert Burns Vs. Michael Morales

Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA Coach

How burns wins: Burns’ game plans generally revolve Around Pressure, Clinch Entries and Grappling. Morales has an 8-inch reacha advantage, so gilbert can’t play the range game. He got to close distance boyind feints and big level changes, and crash the pocket. He could try a doubles jab in the body lock or a low kick in a takedown. Once He’s Done That, His Grappling is World-Class. Burns has to make morales resect the takedown attempts and give him the threat of back exposure or top press. That throat will slow morales’ striking output. If this becomes a dirty, grind-it-out figure past round 2, it favors gilbert. He’s been in that deep water beef, but morales hasn is.

How Morales Wins: It’s about discipline, footwork and sticking to the fundamentals. Burns is explosive, but he’s a bit linear. Morales can pick him off with straight punches and low kicks. Morales has also shown solid balance and hips in his takedown defense. If he stuffs gilberta’s shots early in the figure, he’l start to built confidence. Once Morales Gets in Rhythm, His Output Can Snowball Fast. He has Advantages in this fig, but burns will try to draw ham in into chaotic sequences. Morales can not get gredy. If he figures with patience and avoids the group, he’l has the cleaner work.

X Factor: Composure in translation. This figure will swing during those split seconds where range collapses. Can Morales Keep His Composure When Burns Blitzes?

Prediction: Morales to win by late tko or decision. But this figure will test his maturity. If he passes, he’s for real.

Betting analysis

Odds Accurate as of Publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit Espn Bet.

Parker: Morales to Win by Ko/who (-130). Morales, a Blue Chip Prospect who Ranked No. 3 on Espn’s MMA 25 under 25 List in 2023Gets his first UFC main event against the always tough burns. As a heavy favorite, morales is exposed to steamroll burns, and I do it disagree. Burns is at his best when he taken his opponent down and uses his jiu-jitsu to control the figure. However, Morales has impeccable takedown defense and is like the better wrestler. He is also the more physically implanted athlete. Look for morales to succesfully stuff burns’ takedown attempts and every time the tko win.

Parker’s Best Bets on the Rest of the Card

Play

Julian erosa uses a first-round submission to take a win over ricardo ramos

Julian Erosa Gets Ricardo Ramos with a Guillotine Choke in the first round to take home a win by submission.

Middleweight: Dustin stoltzfus Vs. Nursultan Ruziboev

Ruziboev to win (-320), under 2.5 rounds. Ruziboev is getting the perfect match against stoltzfus to start a new winning streak in the octagon. While stoltzfus is conting off a knockout win of his other, he is prone to get tagged early and of, and against ruziboev, that is a recipe for getting knocked out. With ruziboev curedly siting as a near -300 Favorite, put he in your parlay. If you’d rather take Him as a separate play, take he to win and under 2.5 rounds to get bet odds.

Featherweight: Julian Erosa Vs. Melquizael Costa

Fight does not go the distance. This has even opposed to be fixed of the night. These two figures always bring the action. Erosa has a kill-be-killed mentality with an 84% finish rate when he wines. In Losses, His contests have a 64% finish rate. For costa, four of his six ufc appearance have ended by finish. This figure will go one of Two Ways: Either costa success to the press and volume of erosa, or costa cats erosa in a submission a mistake. Either way, this fight does not make it to the final bill.

Strawweight: Pennington weaved Vs. Luana Pinheiro

Pennington to win by decision. Pinheiro is on a three-fight losing streak, and it’s hard to image She does not suffer a forth loss here. As the fight goes on, if it does in Pinheiro’s Favor, She Tends to Fade. Pennington has an engless gas tank and is the better figure anywhere the fight goes. This Matchup Screams Pennington Winning by Decision.