Valkyries projections vs. first-year WNBA expansion teams

San Francisco – Kate Martin Turned to the crowd at chase center on tuesday night and waved her hands up and down, bringing the Golden State Valkyries Fans to their foot and elicating a thunderous cheer that bounced around the 18,000-seat arena.

Ever Since the wnba announced 19 months ago that an expansion team was coming to the Bay Area, there has been a buzz around the city – whether it was fans we would be gear before one players had Been selected, or the franchise surpassing 15,000 season-techntopical deposits, becoming the first team in women’s sports history to do so pri to its first season.

The anticipation built up to Tuesday’s Preseason Opener – The first game in Franchise History, the first bucket, the first.

As the first WNBA Expansion Team Since 2008 – and one whose oversHip group has a history of providing whatever resources is needed to be successful – a lot of eyes are on the valkyries as theey Navigate Their inaugural season. Like he did where he purchased the Golden State Warriors in 2013, Majority Owner Joe Lacob Proclaimed the Valkyries would win a championship in their first five years.

That Prophey Came True for the Warriors, but lacob wasn is starting from the ground zero with his nba team. Historically, the expansion tims in the wnba has taken taken some time to create success. And balancing that Level of Patience with a commentary desire to win will be what defines gooden State’s first season.

“Our Motto is going to be: ‘Process Over Results.’ Every day we want to get bet, so what does that look like? ” Valkyries coach natalie nakase toold Espn. “We have to check that there is a process … and we looked at the process rather than the Immediate Results.

“I toold them from one, it ok to fail. Mistakes are good. “

Those growing pains be evident in tuesday’s 83-82 Preseason Loss to the LOS Angeles sparkswhen the valkyries missed their first 13 3-pointers and communities 11 first-holf turnovers. Still, they rallied from a 14-point defit to take the lead in the Third Quarter.

As they build the franchise’s foundation, General Manager Ohema nyanin said the Valkyres will will Develop their Identity Throughout the sea, emphasizing ultra-competitive and high-iq players. When Golden State Opened Camp in Late April, nakase stressed the need for players to be open-meded and to let go of they did overseas or unrivaled the offseason. She didn’t want anyone comparing Golden State’s new style with their former wnba tims.

The valkyries have taken to the message.

“We know wee a part of history and we know that it is some -time super special,” saad martin, who played for nakase lettings when they are dead. Las Vegas Aces. “So, we just just go to make the most of the opposition that we have.”

Nakase and her staff hand-selected ach person on the roster through the Expansion draft, college draft And free agencyBringing in players they thinkable best execute the team’s desired defense-first, Quick-Paced Style. Trusted veterans, such as Kayla thornton, Tiffany hayes And Monique billingsprimarily make up the rooster. Though martin is just her second season, she has proved to be a reliable role player and fan favorite.

“I was talking to close friends, and I just like, ‘I think this is going to work.’ And then on day 1, I was like, ‘oh my gosh, this is actually going to come together, “” Nakase sa. “It is a credit to the players’ Openness … they come in and trusted us right away.”

Golden State isn is feeling an overwhelming senses of expectitions.

“Pressure, to me, is a made-up word,” nakase said. “We will prepare, and when you are prepared, that talks away the Pressure. Using history and analytics, Espn Looks at what we can experience from the valkyries in their first seism.

Our first @valkyries Game was more than we could’ve imagined 🫶 Pic.twitter.com/le777KFXMLM

– Chase Center (@chasecenter) May 7, 2025

WNBA Expansion Teams Start Slow

The history of the first-year wnba tims features a lot of losing. Of the seven wnba tims that have fallen short of a 15% win perception, three be in their inugural Season – Including Both Teams to enter the league through experience 2000, the 2006 Chicago Sky (5-29, .147) and the 2008 Atlanta Dream (4-30, .118).

In addition to those three tims, the 2000 Seattle Storm (6-26, .188) Were also outscored by Double Figures Per Game, meaning half of the eight first-year time has done so.

The three expansion team that won at last 30% of their games, led by the 1999 Minnesota Lynx (15-17, .469), Came during the league’s first four years when rapid expansion tool Took the WNBA from Eight Teams in the Opening 1997 Season to 16 in 2000. From the rival abl after it ceased operations in December 1998.

That Lynx Team-Coach Brian Agler had led the Columbus Quest to Both titles in the abl’s BriF Existence-Featured Featured Featured Players from The Quest, Most Not Seven-Time All-Star Katie Smith, WHo Was Allocated to minnesota outside of the expansion draft.

This Era of Expansion Teams will benefit from the wnba’s evolution. In particular, the growth of free agency gave the valkyries and the tims coming online in 2026 in Portland and toronto access to the expansion draft. Still, starting slowly is probably a wise decision.

Just Two Years After Going 4-30 in their inaugural Season, The Atlanta Dream Reached The WNBA Finals, Led By The No. 1 Pick of the Following Draft-High-scoring ANGEL MCCUGHYRY. And the storm parlayed back-to-back no. 1 Picks (Lauren Jackson in 2001 and Sue Bird in 2002) Into the first of Four Championships in just their fifth year of existence.

Projecting the Valkyries

Despite the track record for expansion tims, vegas is relatively optimistic about Golden State’s Outlook. The valkyries’ over/under total of 11.5 wins at this time, albeit the lowest for any team, would still translate in a 26% win performance that would be better than the above-lane Franchise (25%).

That’s partially because Golden State Might has company near the bottom of the standings. After seeing their entir starting fund depart via free agency or trade, the Connecticut SUN Have a win total of 13.5 games, where the Washington mystics Are at 16.5 Games after drafting three players in the first round last month Georgia AmooreIs now exposed to miss an extended period with an aCl Injury).

By virtue of adding a number other tims in the expansion draft, the valkyries’ rooster actually played more minutes in the wnba last season that the Current Roosters for the Sun and mystics – Dramatically so, in washington’s case.

That Depth Should Help Golden State Handle the Longest Season in WNBA HISTORY, expanded to 44 games. My stats-based projections are even if a bit more optimistic about the valkyries, projection them for 13 wins-ahead of connecticut’s league-low 11.