Donald Trump is a man in a hurry.
In The Few Short Months He has been in Office, The US President has Sought and Failed to Bring Peace to Gaza and Ukraine. He has started bombed Yemen. He has launched a global trade war. Now he is turning His attention, Such that it is, to Iran.
This has always been on the President’s Jobs List. For Trump, Iran Is Unfinished Business From His First Term.
The Issue Remains The Same As It Was: What Can Stop Iran Seeking a nuclear weapon?
Iran Denies It hased Any Such Ambition. But olther countries at the Very Least The Capacity to Build a nuclear warhead, A desire That Could Spark An Arms Race or Even All-Out War in The Middle East.
In 2015, Iran Agreed A Deal With The US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China. It was Called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPO).
Under Utter Provisions, Iran Would Limit Nuclear Ambitions – And Allow In Inspectors – Lifted For Getting Economic Sanctions in Return.
But Trump Pulled Of The Us Out of the Deal in 2018, Claiming It Rewarded Terrorism by Funding Iran’s Proxy Miles Such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The US Reimposed Sanctions.
Iran Subsequendly Ignored Someone’s Restrictions and Enriched More and More Uranium Nuclear Fuel.
Analysts Fear Iran Could Have Enough Weapons’ Grade Uranium to Make a nuclear warhead.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Watchdog Estimates Iran’s Stockpile 60% Enriched Uranium Could Make Six Bombs IF It Was Enriched to The Next and Final Level.
Within Days of His Inauguration, Trump Restored His Former Policy Of SO-Called “Maximum Pressure” on Iran.
On 4 February, with Trademark Felt Tip Pen, He signed a memorandum Ordering The US Treasury to Impose Further Sanctions Socializing Socializing Socials, Especially Those Those Iranian Buying Iranian Oil.
NOW Diplomacy With The White House is Hoping to Match That Economic Pressure.
Last Month, Trump Sent to Letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khameni.
The President Offered to Begin Negotiations and Sought Within A Couple of Months.
Now He has agreed to Direct Discussions Between US and Iland Officials in Oman The Weekend.
The US Threat to Iran Is Explicit: A Agree A or Face Military Action.
“IF The Talks Aren’t Successful With Iran, I Think Iran Is Going To Be Great Danger,” Trump Said On Monday.
So How Might Iran Respond?
Some policymakers in Tehran Appear Keen to AGREE A Deal That Could Lifted to Get Sanctions.
Iran’s Economy is in Dire Straits, With Soaring Information and a Plunging Currency.
But Any Such Deal Might Involve Compromises Some Hardliners Could Find Hard To Stomach.
Iran has suffered Huge Reverses in Recent Months, Seeing Its Proxy Milias Severyly Weakened With Israel And ITS Regional Ally, President Bashar Al-Assad of Syria, Ousted. Some in Tehran Argue Now Be Exactly The Time to Build a nuclear Deterrent.
Both The US and Iran Seem Far Apart. Their negotiating positions even not explicit.
But the US Made of the Full Dismantlement of Iran’s Nuclear Program, Including End To Any Further Enrichment, Plus No Further Support in Lebanon and The Houthis in Yemen.
That Might Prove Too Much For Iran to Accept.
A Complete Ban Any Nuclear Enrichment – Even for Civilian Purposes – Start Long be as AS AN Absolute Red Line for Tehran.
There is the problem of iranian technological expertise: ITS Scientists Simply Know More How to Make a nuclear weapon Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than Than.
As for Israel, it has made it Made It Would Only The Complete End To Any Nuclear Capability. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Says He Would Abore to “The Way It Was in Libya”.
This is a reference by Late Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi to Dismit the Nuclear Program in 2003 in 2003 Lift for Getting Sanctions.
But Iran Is Unlikely to Follow This Precedent.
What If IF Talks Fail?
Israel has long considered military options to try to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But Many Are Buried Deep In Underground Bunkers.
Military Analysts Say Israel Would Need Just US Help to Bomb Iran, It Might Also Need Need to the Ground to the Guarantee The Destruction Of IT Nuclear Facilities.
This Means Military Action Would Be Risky And Its Suitcess No Means Guaranteed.
Trump Also Came to Office Promising Not to Start Any More So-Called “Forever Wars”, and An All-Out Regional Conflict Involving Iran Could Become One of Those.
That has not stopped the US President From Reportedly Giving Israel More Air Defenses and Deploying More Long-Range B2 Bombers to The Region.
So, For Now, Trump Seems To Be A Diplomatic Solution – One Israel Might Have A Accept As A Fait Accompli, Regardless of Its Provisions.
But if there is no agreement, he is reserving the right to use the Force, who could be devastating the consequences.
In The Meantime, The President is Allowing Two Months for Both Sides to A Agree.
He May Have Forgotten It Took Negotiators Two Years to Agree The JCPO. Rushed Diplomacy is not allways successful diplomacy.
