Will Paige Bueckers be an immediate star as a newcomer to WNBA?

Last year, Indiana fever watch Caitlin clark went from No. 1 a selection in the WNBA proposal to the top five MVP vote and a place on The first team all-food. Fresh Uconn leadership at its first national championship since 2016, may Paige Bueckers Make a similar impact as the expected selection No. 1 in Monday’s proposal?

Clark experienced some of what colleague No. 1 chose Diana Taurasi called “reality”. Especially during the brutal Start the plan. With a fever schedule presented against some of the best WNBA teams, including three matches with Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty In the first 13 games Clark fired 37% of the field and had almost as much turnover as assistance, while Indiana started 3-10.

But before Clark returned from the WNBA Olympic break, she was one of the most valuable league players. During this range, Clark average 23.1 ppg and 8.9 APG when the fever reached Play -OFF for the first time since 2016.

Let’s analyze the performance of Bueckers on Uconne Along with Clark to Iowa and other college stars to get a better idea of ​​what Dallas Wings He can expect to make a choice of 1 on Monday.

Selective, effective shooter

Compared to Clark, a natural shooter, Bueckers is a little more reserved in this respect. Culminated in 21.9 ppg as a junior before falling to 19.9 as a senior with the arrival of a freshman Sarah Strong and the return Azzi advantage to the line -up. The highest use of Bueckers on UConn was 29%; Clark was at 36.5% or higher for all four years of his university career.

But when Huskies needed it, Bueckers showed the ability to increase their scoring-especially during the NCAA 2025 tournament. After her career she reached 32 points (against Arkansas at the beginning of her Sophomore season), Bueckers surpassed that Mark Back-to-back Sweet 16 victories over Oklahoma.

The second game showed how Bueckers scores from all three levels. Firing 6-Z-12 on 2-point jumps, mostly a pull-up with the Sooners maintained their post players back in coverage against pick-and-roll and hit six 3-proofers-responded to their high-high career career in eight attempts.

Although the Bueckers could not always maintain the effectiveness of this game – when they needed only 27 attempts to shots and three foul shots to get 40 points – more with less consistent theme during her career. Bueckers published 0.628 actual percentage of shooting (TS%), which measures the percentage of shooting necessary for exclusively two -point attempts to correspond to the overall scoring points, of which 3 and free throws, and never under 0.600.

Among the guards elaborated with the best selection in the last two decades, only Kelsey plumSamátní sezátyky AT Washington (0.657 TS%) was more efficient than the best Bueckers season. Previously, they will return to the UConn 2001-02 title, when both Taurasi and Sue Bird were more efficient than Bueckers as part of a star start that included Naism Hall of Famer Swin Cash, All-Star Asjha Jones and WNBA Starter Tamika Williams-Jeter.

Playing on such a stacked team bird leaned slightly more first than Bueckers, on average 14.4 ppg and 5.9 APG and won the award of the national player of the year as a senior with 21% of the use of use. Yet it could be the best historical compit for Bueckers as a shooter.

Bird never average more than 14.7 ppg in WNBA, but similarly took over games with its scoring if necessary – especially with 14 points in the fourth quarter from Seattle Stormgame 5 victories over taurasi and Phoenix Mercury On the way to the WNBA Championship 2018.

“It is almost guaranteed that Paige Bueckers will be the total selection No. 1.”@Andraya_carter and @chiney Divide why PAIGE is expected to be the first outside the board in the WNBA design 📈 pic.twitter.com/fln53ytfry

– EsPNW (@PNW) April 8, 2025

Dangerous Pick-and-Roll operator

It is possible that Bueckers has more insulting potential as a WNBA player than it has been shown in Uconn. After all, the Bueckers was not used as often as a pick-and-roll operator as Clark. To monitor sport for synergy, Bueckers on average only 6.4 pick-and-rolls on the game as a senior that led directly to a shot, a free throw line, or turn either or from its initial passage.

Unlike the Clark, who ran 9.3 such pick-and-rolls on the game as a senior in Iowa, and then in these situations was inserted even more often in WNBA. According to the second tracking of the Spectrum camera, which includes all pick-and-rolls regardless of the result, Clark’s 30.4 for the game last season was led by WNBA.

Since we do not know exactly how Chris Koclanes, Chris Koclanes, runs Dallas, we can look at the record of the Executive Vice President Wings and GM Curt Miller as a guide. Before entering the USC coaching staff in 2023, Koclanes spent five seasons as an assistant to the coach under Miller with Connecticut Sun and Los Angeles Sparks. As head coach SPARKS last year Miller, according to the second spectrum, called on the second highest screen on the ball to play in WNBA.

When the UConn Geno Auriemma put Bueckers into the situations of pick-and-roll this season, the results were extraordinary. Huskies average 1.2 points for the game, the best of any handler of the ball with at least 100 qualifying pick-and-rolls, and shot an effective 62% of the field (counting 3-pointers as 1.5 terrain targets to reflect their added value). This is the highest diameter for any serial with a ball for pick-a-roll at this volume level since OregonMaite Cazorla in 2018-19.

Because Bueckers is a serious threat of scoring, WNBA teams will often be forced to commit two defenders in a pick-and-roll to create opportunities for Bueckers to find open teammates as a distributor. This is one of the big development we saw from Clark during her newcomers. The rest of the schedule went from 6.0 APG during the opening section 13 games to 9.7. Only Courtney VanderslootWith 10.0 per game in 2020, he average more.

All -round

When I compared Bueckers with Clark entry to the finals 2024The defense was in its favor. In the UConn team with a dreaded injury that only one player started (2024 first round Aaliyah Edwards) 6-foot or higher, 5-11 Bueckers stepped forward as an unlikely defender of color, which led the team in blocks to the game.

With a strong arrival and 6-4 newcomer John El Alpha Health has returned to the traditional defensive role on the district. However, Bueckers’ combination of theft and blocks was impressive. She published a career with a high 3.5 stole per 100 opponent games and blocked 3% of the two -point attempts of the opponent.

A list of the top five tips in my database that have achieved both of these thresholds is dotted with: Cash, Jones, Tauras, Alana Beard, Angel McCoughtry, Maya Moore, Candace Parker, Devereaux Peters and Gabby Williams. (By the way, Lsu forward Aneesah Morow will also qualify if it is received in this five best.)

Given her small figure and what is likely to be heavy offensive burden, I doubt that Bueckers will be a defensive standout like some players in this group. Yet it is another indication of how Bueckers’ ability to read games and size for a point guard to make her valuable. Playing in what could be a sub-dimensioned peripheral trio with 5-8 Ariko and 5-11 plugs Dijons Carrington With his wings, Bueckers could slip down to protect some small attackers when Carrington serves as a defender on the ball.

Expectations as a newcomer

Bird and Clark share the distinction that they are lonely newcomers of WNBA directly from a college to an average of 10 ppg and 5 APG in the first season, the Bueckers Group should strive to connect. Only 11 players, including Ogunbowale, achieved these brands last season. Add the efficiency of Bueckers and defensive contributions and would immediately put it in the upper half of the WNBA guards.

Like Clark, Bueckers could reasonably get his team back to play -off like a newcomer. Dallas is two seasons removed from 22-18 in 2023, and while the wings have lost two key members of this team forward Natasha Howard and Sablyadded Carrington and Forward Myisha Hines-Alllen and Nalssa Smith.

The Bueckers itself could prove to be the greatest upgrade as the small production of Dallas got from Point Guards Jacy Sheldon and Love longThey both left now. They were combined for 9.8 ppg and 5.5 APG, production Bueckers themselves could be credibly coincided, while dramatically improved at 28% 3-point shooting.

Is not realistic to build a monster on game statistics Clark made like a newcomerWhen she ended up in the TOP 10 in WNBA scoring and led the league in assists. Bueckers may never reach these heights and Bird’s Naismmith Hall of Fame Career shows that it is possible to be one of the best players of the league. There is a precedent for what we can expect, but Bueckers will develop their own way as a professional.