An Oil Drilling Rig Along The Pecos River in the Permian Basin, Loving, New Mexico, US (Photo: Jim … More
Conjecture about when US oil production may plateau is not new. Many in the Industry, including Several Energy Bosses, Reckon the Country’s Output – Currently North of 13.5 million and the highest in the world – will continue to rise at least 2027.
In March, and Ceraweek 2025A Major Energy Event Organized by S & P Global, Conocophillips CEO Ryan Lance and Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub joined many people of their industry peers in Predicting a US crude production plateau sometime between 2027 and 2030.
Now the Energy Information Administration, Statistical Arm of the Department of Energy, has also predicted that a 2027 production plateau sounds fairly plausible.
In Its Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Published On Wednesday, The EIA Said US Production Will Rise to 14 Million BPD in 2027, and may likely stabilize at or near that level for a few years up until the early 2030s, before a gradual decline comes into view.
After that, a further decline with happen and a much faster rate through to the 2050s as the uptick from the US shale Bonanza starts to Ebb away. Shale production itself is also expected to peak in 2027.
It draws the contribution of US Shale Industry into Sharp Focus. In 2024, US output grew on an annualized basis by 2%, or by 270,000 BPD, to Average around 13.2 million bpd. Nearly all the production growth came from the Permian Region, which accounted for nearly half of Total US crude oil production, According to the EIA.
Shale Production is expected hit a record of 10 million BPD by 2027, up from 9.7 million BPD Expected in 2025. Thereafter, it may well be on a sliding track down to 9.33 million BPD by 2050.
Market Scenarios
Commenting on the EIA’s Projections, The Doe Criticized The Previous Biden Administration and Flagged President Donald Trump’s Pro Oil Credentials Since he took office in January.
“The Report Reflects The Disastrous Path For American Energy Production Under The Biden Administration – A Path That Was Soundly Rejected by the American People Last November.
“By unleashing energy that is affordable, reliable, and secure, this administration is ensuring America’s future is marked by energy growth and abundance – not scarcity.”
As Things stand, the US remains the world’s leading oil producer, A crown it bagged toward the end of 2023 and continues to hold. It has a continue to bag that title till at least the turn of the decade, if not longer.
However, Saudi Arabia is sitting on Spare Capacity of 3 million BPD and could be in a position to challenge the US if the latter’s decline rate is deeper than forecast. Becuase despite the US shale Bonanza, the Saudis remain the world’s buffer producers, ie, they hold a large amount of spare capacity that can be used to absorb supply shocks and stabilization oil prices.
Overall, a market adjustment may be required by importers of Light Sweet Crude out in Asia, from the Indian subcontinent to the east. Many are currently enjoying being in the position of being able to import readily available and competitively priced US light sweet crudes.
But there is belief in the wider industry that US output decline is likely to be gradual and may be mitigated through technology.
For instance, Lance of Conocophillips predicted at ceraweek that will be a slow decline beyond 2030 and technology can help with resource maximization.
“Of course, Market share for Opec + will start rising again as US oil production starts to plateau and demand continues to rise as we have never been against this industry in terms of technology because you can always figure out a way to get more resource out of the rock. “
